WCRP-UNESCO workshop

Programme & Oral presentations

Monday 27 September 2010

Session 1. Hydrological extremes (precipitation, flooding and river discharge), including compound hydroclimate extremes (Chairperson: Olga Zolina)

Physics and origins of hydroclimate extremes (Kevin Trenberth, NCAR, USA)
(View Presentation)
Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes (Brian Soden, University of Miami, USA)
(View Presentation)
Investigating mechanisms of future changes in precipitation extremes simulated in GCMs (Seita Emori, Center for Global Environmental Research Tsukuba, Japan)
(View Presentation)
How much can global models tell us about future changes in drought and flood conditions? (Hervé Le Treut, Institut-Pierre-Simon-Laplace, France)
(View Presentation)

Session 1. continues (Chairperson: Ron Stewart)

Precipitation extremes and flooding: Evidence of nonstationarity and hydrologic design implications (Dennis Lettenmaier, University of Washington, USA)
(View Presentation)
Observed changes in heavy precipitation events and extratropical cyclones (David Easterling, NCDC, USA)
(View Presentation)
Trends in U.S. extreme snowfall seasons since 1900 (Kenneth Kunkel, Desert Research Institute, USA)
(View Presentation)
Investigation of the 2006 drought and 2007 flood extremes at the Southern Great Plains through an integrative analysis of observations ( Xiquan Dong, University of North Dakota, USA)
(View Presentation)

Session 2. Extremes in temperature conditions, heat waves and dry spells (Chairperson: Albert Klein Tank)

Past and future changes in temperature extremes in Australia: a global context ( Lisa Alexander, University of New South Wales, Australia)
(View Presentation)
Detecting anthropogenic influence on extreme daily temperature at regional scale ( Francis Zwiers, Meteorological Service of Canada, Canada)
(View Presentation)
European heat waves in a changing climate ( Christoph Schär, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
(View Presentation)
Heat waves in Mediterranean climate regimes ( Alexander Gershunov, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, USA)
(View Presentation)
The structure of drought ( Ron Stewart, University of Manitoba, Canada)
(View Presentation)

Session 2. continues (Chairperson: Sergey Gulev)

Storms, drought, and wetness: Meteorological extremes on different time scales ( Richard Blender, University of Hamburg, Germany)
(View Presentation)
Contributions of drought studies to the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) ( Rick Lawford, University of Manitoba, Canada)
(View Presentation)

Tuesday 28 September 2010

Session 3. Extreme tropical and extratropical cyclones and associated wind waves and storm surges (Chairperson: Francis Zwiers)

Observed tropical cyclone variability ( James Kossin, University of Wisconsin, USA)
(View Presentation)
Extreme extratropical cyclones and their characteristics ( Sergey Gulev, IORAS, Russia)
(View Presentation)
Perceived as a regional phenomenon, but really of global concern: storm surges ( Hans von Storch, GKSS, Germany)
(View Presentation)
Atlantic hurricanes and climate change: modeling studies ( Thomas Knutson, GFDL, USA)
(View Presentation)
Quantitative assessment of wind storms and extreme extra-tropical cyclones under climate change ( Gregor Leckebusch, Freie University Berlin, Germany)
(View Presentation)

Session 4. Methodologies for estimation extremes (Chairperson: David Stephenson)

Stochastic models for weather extremes ( Anna Panorska, University of Nevada, USA)
(View Presentation)
Extreme value theory and single-event attribution ( Richard Smith, University of North Carolina, USA)
(View PDF)
Statistical inference for space-time extremes ( Anthony Davison, EPFL, Switzerland)
(View PDF)
Extreme value analysis and projection in light of the changing climate ( Xiaolan Wang, Environment Canada, Canada)
(View Presentation)

Session 4. continues (Chairperson: William Gutowski)

Uncertainty in rare event statistics and the difficulties in comparing climate models to observations ( Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA)
(View Presentation)
An objective identification technique for regional extreme events ( Fumin Ren, Beijing Climate Center, China)
(View Presentation)
Advanced metrics of extreme precipitation events ( Olga Zolina, University of Bonn, Germany)
(View Presentation)

Session 5. Risk assessment (Chairperson: Ivan Kuhnel)

Estimation of future changes in extreme climate events for the user and decision-making communities ( Clare Goodess, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK)
(View Presentation)
Future risk of global drought from downscaled, bias corrected climate projections ( Eric Wood, Princeton University, USA)
(View Presentation)
Risk Assessment and future sea-level extremes ( John Hunter, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Australia)
(View PDF)
TBD ( Gero Michel, Willis Research Network, UK)
(View Presentation)

Wednesday 29 September 2010

Special session: Key-note kick-offs for breakout groups (Chairperson: Valery Detemmerman)

What data do we require for extremes analysis and what is available? (Albert Klein-Tank, KNM, the Netherlands)
(View Presentation)
Precipitation Extremes in the NARCCAP Simulations (William Gutowski, Iowa State University, USA)
(View Presentation)
Statistical methodologies for exploring and quantifying extreme weather and climate (David Stephenson, University of Exeter, UK)
(View PDF)